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Closed model and API providers do not disclose the data needed to compute a real footprint

#00170

Consumer-side tools must assume model architecture and a worldwide-average grid because providers publish almost nothing about model size, hardware, or data-centre efficiency. Every downstream estimate therefore carries wide, irreducible error bars.

Parent issue

#00164 The carbon footprint of software and AI compute is rarely measured, so it cannot be managed

Location

global

Description

Why this is its own facet

The parent measurement sub-issue can be closed for compute you run or bill for. It cannot be fully closed for compute you consume through a closed API, because the provider withholds the inputs. This facet isolates that structural opacity, which caps the accuracy of estimation approaches like model-based LCA no matter how good the method is.

Observable evidence

Providers generally treat model size, hardware, and data-centre efficiency as competitive secrets. Independent benchmarking shows the effect directly: on one public energy leaderboard, closed providers have largely declined to submit their production models even through a secure sandbox, while by one count 15 of the 20 most-used models are closed (Hugging Face, 2025). The ranges that make cross-model comparison meaningful therefore cannot be completed.

Separating fact from interpretation

The observed fact is non-disclosure and the resulting absence of closed models from comparable datasets. The interpretation—that this is a deliberate competitive choice rather than a technical barrier—is supported by the existence of secure evaluation sandboxes that providers decline to use.

Impact if unaddressed

Buyers cannot choose on efficiency, regulators cannot verify claims, and the fastest-growing slice of AI usage—closed frontier models in production—stays the least measurable. Estimation tools remain necessary but permanently approximate.

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