#00361
Map places likely to retain suitable future conditions, protect natural movement routes and assess assisted colonization only when unmanaged climate risk is greater than relocation risk.
Parent issue
#00347 Climate change and extreme events increase extinction risk
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Combine species ecology, climate projections, microclimate, hydrology, disturbance and connectivity to identify potential climate refugia and movement routes. Protecting current habitat remains important, but management should also consider where viable conditions may persist as climate changes.
The IUCN Guidelines for Assessing Species' Vulnerability to Climate Change support structured assessment of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Assisted colonization may be considered when natural movement is insufficient, but only after comparing the risks of action and inaction.
Relocation outside the historical range can create invasive, disease, genetic and ecological harms. Decisions require transparent thresholds, staged trials, monitoring and a feasible exit or containment plan.
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